![]() OFCL=Official NHC forecast GFS=Global Forecast System model HMON=Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic regional model HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model Euro=European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model COAMPS=COAMPS-TC regional model. Skill of the top computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2021, compared to a “no skill” model called CLIPER5 that uses only climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence assumes that a storm will tend to keep going in the direction and at the same speed that it is currently going). The improvement in track forecast accuracy has slowed down in recent years, however, suggesting that forecasts may be nearing their limit in accuracy because of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Those numbers amount to an extraordinary accomplishment, one undoubtedly leading to huge savings in lives, damage, and emotional angst. Over the past 30 years, one- to three-day track forecast errors have been reduced by about 75% over the past 20 years, four-day and five-day track forecast errors by 50 – 60%. During the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, NHC track forecasts had accuracies near or better than the five-year average, with two-day and three-day track forecasts setting new records for accuracy. ![]()
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